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Fuel Trends Oct 12-16, 2009

     The U.S. average price for regular gasoline increased for the first time since the week of August 10, 2009, according to the Department of Energy. Although the price rose two cents to $2.49 per gallon, the national average remained 66 cents below the price one year ago.  Changes were mixed across the country, with prices continuing to fall in the Rocky Mountains and the West Coast while increasing in the East Coast, the Midwest, and along the Gulf Coast. The price on the West Coast dropped the most of any region, falling a nickel to $2.90 per gallon. The average in California also fell a nickel to settle at $3.02 per gallon.
     For the first time in six weeks, the national average price of diesel fuel increased. Moving up two cents to $2.60 per gallon, the average was $1.06 less than last year. On the West Coast, the average moved up a penny to $2.73 per gallon and the average in California was essentially unchanged at $2.79 per gallon.
     Experts expressed surprise at the data in the weekly Department of Energy report. Gasoline stocks fell more than expected while production also fell.  Analysts noted that none of the decline in gasoline stocks was associated with demand improvement. The gasoline supply continues to maintain a sizable surplus compared with averages and refinery activity reportedly dropped by more than 4% of capacity.   While a notable decline in the runs may have been interpreted by some as a reason for prices to increase, it may be more of an indication of continued weak product demand.
     Crude oil prices settled at a one-year high on Wednesday, propped up by the falling dollar.  The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the currency against those of six major U.S. trading partners, dropped 0.2 percent to 75.422 last week, it's lowest point in more than a year, and was accompanied by assorted reports of oil demand recovery.  In fact, bullish economic news flourished. Stocks rallied on better-than expected earnings reports with the Dow cracking 10,000 for the first time in a year.   Minutes from a Federal Open Market Committee meeting last month suggested that overall economic activity was beginning to pick up.
      Factors that should be keeping the crude price down include the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 50 points to dip back below the 10,000 mark, Bank of America reporting a $2.24 billion loss, and a slight resurgence of strength in the dollar. Late in the week, however, crude oil prices were up sharply.  Experts feel that crude prices may reach the $83 to $84 level over the long term if the dollar continues to weaken. 
 
Chris Nobles
Commercial Fueling
NELLA Oil Company







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